Aggregation and Prediction By crudely aggregating these views, I estimate that a serious crisis will hit “the system” around 2030. By “the system”, I am referring to McWorld — the global techno capital U.S.-led order of today. The world of Bretton Woods and drive-through Arby’s restaurants. The world of NATO and Big Capital. Modern western civilization: post-cold war, neo-liberal federal reserve Bernankebux society. The impact will likely be as bad as the fall of the Soviet Union, at least, and will impact the United States as well as Europe and allied nations. But collapse can be such a slow process. Consider how long the British empire took to fall, and how difficult it is to point to one particular event that marked its decline. There’s no way to know exactly what event we are looking for. For instance, one could argue that several events since the 2008 financial crisis have been showing the signs of the empire weakening. The economic recovery was largely fueled by financial manipulation and debt issuance — which just makes the system more unstable. The US is also starting to wind down wars in the middle east; withdrawing troops from the region. Strategically, the last decade of american overseas adventures have been failures — perhaps even longer.

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